Todays object of technical analysis is Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD). After one does a thorough job of checking for chinks in the armor on the fundamental side, the work of due diligence is only just beginning. The next step is to make sure the technical character of the chart matches the story in an advantageous way. We will look at some of the key points in that analysis today for AMD.
First off, when looking at the overall directional impact of recent money flows, we will use the relative positioning of the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. In other words, if the 50-day moving average is trading above the 200-day, it is traditionally seen as a bullish chart trend. Conversely, if the 50-day moving average is trading below the 200-day, it is traditionally labeled a bearish direction or bearing.
In this case, for AMD, that adds up to a bearish designation, which suggests that flows have been working in an overall negative direction on the chart. With that established, the question now turns to whether or not key indicators suggest the action has pushed too far too fast, leading to a statistically likely mean-reversion probability going forward.
For that, we rely on our key overbought/oversold oscillators. There are many out there, but we prefer the 14-day Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and the 20-day ?fast stochastic?. For both of these measures, if we see a score above 75 (overbought) or below 25 (oversold), history suggests one is wise to expect some reversion to the mean. For AMD, the 14-day RSI shows a score of 40.54%, while the 20-day fast stochastic shows a score of 22.19%.
From there, we want to next turn our attention to relative performance and volatility scoring, or Beta. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. has moved -1.55 over the past month or so. Over the trailing 100 days, the stock is underperforming the S&P 500 by 12.74.
This movement has come on a more volatile bearing from one day to the next relative to the broader market, according to the stock?s 36-month beta. In addition, we can see that the stock?s recent action has come on a historical volatility score of 40.96% (as indicated by taking the standard deviation of returns for a random trading input assuming buying the stock at a given average price during the specified period). Furthermore, the 20-day ATR as a percentage of the 20-day moving average grants another key view into relative volatility scoring. By that measure, we reach a score of 4.87%.
That brings us neatly to an examination of key levels of support and resistance on the chart. For this, we generally bias toward range markets, fib levels, and moving averages. In any of these cases, it?s important to understand that the concept of support and resistance is a bit like what we might call ?social gravity?. It?s a game theory concept. It?s the point where people assume other people will be acting.
Keynes called this type of logic the beauty contest. The idea is based on a fictional newspaper contest in which people are asked to pick which of a series of pictures of women?s faces will be the most popular picks for ?most beautiful?. Given that the winner will be someone who guesses what other people picked the most, the goal has nothing to do with picking the most beautiful face. It is figuring out which picture the most other people will think the most other people will think is the most beautiful. This is called ?recursive logic?. And it forms the basis for key support and resistance in markets as well.
In short, popular meeting points on the chart tend to be established either where they have been before (range extremes), or at key Fibonacci levels or moving averages. In this case, the critical 38.2% level drawn off the 52-week low of $9.04 sits at $11.57. AMD also has additional resistance above at the stock?s 200-day simple moving average, which sits at $ 12.15.
Lastly, we need to quickly cover relative volume. Here, we want to examine relative volume measures to get a feel for interest in the stock of late. Right now, this stock has been showing strong relative volume, which indicates interest among those making a market for shares of the stock, and that should be seen as a key factor in drawing conclusions about your level of interest as well.
Legal Notice: This work is based on what we’ve learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors and you should not base investment decisions solely on what you read here. It’s your money and your responsibility. Nothing herein should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer general customer service questions, they are not licensed to address your particular investment situation. Our track record is based on hypothetical results and may not reflect the same results as actual trades. Likewise, past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Don’t trade in these markets with money you can’t afford to lose. Investing in stock markets involves the risk of loss. Before investing you should consider carefully the risks involved, if you have any doubt as to suitability or the taxation implications, seek independent financial advice. StocksnTrade expressly forbids its writers from having a financial interest in their own securities or commodities recommendations to readers. Such recommendations may be traded, however, by other editors, StocksnTrade, its affiliated entities, employees, and agents, but only after waiting 24 hours after an internet broadcast.
(c) 2018 StocksnTrade. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and treaties. This Newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, (electronic or otherwise) in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of StocksnTrade. See site disclaimer for compensation.